Unwinnable Wars Afghanistan and the Future of American Armed Statebuilding

In nine short days, Taliban forces destroyed two decades of American armed statebuilding in Afghanistan. This was no isolated failure. Over the last century, almost every attempt to intervene militarily to prop up or reconstruct an allied state has seen similar dismal outcomes – why?

In this new book, Adam Wunische offers answers to this fundamental question. Exploring the factors that worked against success in America’s doomed armed statebuilding mission in Afghanistan, he identifies forces common to other unsuccessful U.S. missions, from Vietnam to Colombia, Haiti to Iraq. These forces, he argues, inherently favor insurgencies, forfeit sustainability for quick results, and create dependencies and corruption – all of which undermine the goal of building a state that can stand on its own. Not only that, but most of these forces are pervasive and uncontrollable: meaning any future attempts at armed statebuilding will likely also be unwinnable, with costs and consequences far outpacing interests and benefits. Faced with a future likely dominated by proxy wars, Wunische offers a novel way forward to prevent the U.S. from chasing new wars that it is destined to lose.

Adam Wunische received his Ph.D. from Boston College and teaches classes on military effectiveness, terrorism, and research methods at George Washington University. He is a military analyst with the U.S. Government and worked on Afghanistan security issues during the collapse of the Afghan Government in 2021. Previously, Adam was a researcher for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington D.C. and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He was a Sergeant serving in U.S. Army Intelligence from 2005 to 2010, completing two deployments to Afghanistan in support of the 3rd Special Forces Group. 

List of Acronyms

List of Tables and Figures

Preface

Introduction: The Fall of Kabul

Chapter 1: Preexisting Conditions

Chapter 2: Ticking Clocks

Chapter 3: Dilemmas

Chapter 4: Paradoxes

Chapter 5: Avoiding Unwinnable Wars

Chapter 6: Wars Worth Fighting

Notes