Weather Analysis and Forecasting

In this practical guide, Santurette and Georgiev show how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from weather prediction models. In particular, they concentrate on the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations. The book's step-by-step pedagogy makes this an essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology.

Preface

ix

Acknowledgments

xi

Introduction

xiii

PART I Fundamentals

A Dynamical View of Synoptic Development

03

(12)

Vorticity and Potential Vorticity

03

(2)

The Concept of PV Thinking

05

(3)

The Conservation Principle

05

(1)

The Invertibility Principle

06

(1)

Climatological Distribution of Potential Vorticity

06

(1)

Positive PV Anomalies and Their Remote Influence

07

(1)

Operational Use of PV Fields for Monitoring Synoptic Development

08

(7)

Upper-Level Dynamics, Dynamical Tropopause, and Tropopause Dynamic Anomaly

08

(2)

Synoptic Development as Seen by the PV Concept

10

(1)

Jet Streams and Jet Streaks

11

(1)

Analysis of a Real-Atmosphere Vertical Structure

12

(3)

The Interpretation Problem of Satellite Water Vapor Imagery

15

(12)

Radiation Measurements in Water Vapor Absorption Bands

15

(4)

Information Content of Water Vapor Image Gray Shades

19

(8)

Layered Moisture Conditions

20

(2)

Cold Air Temperatures and Inversions

22

(1)

Clouds

22

(5)

PART II Practical Use of Water Vapor Imagery and Dynamical Fields

Significant Water Vapor Imagery Features Associated with Synoptic Dynamical Structures

27

(56)

Interpretation of Synoptic-Scale Light and Dark Imagery Features

28

(13)

Moist (light) Features

28

(2)

Dry (dark) Features

30

(11)

Mid- to Upper-Troposphere Wind Field

41

(6)

Interaction of the Jet Stream with a Tropopause Dynamic Anomaly

43

(2)

Jet-Stream Breaks

45

(2)

Blocking Regimes

47

(6)

Blocking Regime Formation in which Easterlies Result from Anticyclogenesis

47

(3)

Blocking Regime Formation in which Easterlies Result from Cyclogenesis

50

(3)

Cyclogenesis

53

(10)

Cyclogenesis within Baroclinic Troughs---Leaf and Baroclinic-Leaf Features in the WV Imagery

53

(5)

Cyclogenesis with an Upper-Level Precursor

58

(5)

WV Imagery Analysis of Main Ingredients of a Severe Weather Situation

63

(16)

Main Features Associated with the Blocking Regime over the Mediterranean

64

(1)

K-Boundary as an Indicator of a ``Rolling Over'' Upstream Ridge

64

(4)

Dry Delta Feature Associated with a Jet Break in the Blocking Regime

68

(2)

Leaf Development Producing Instability and Convection

70

(5)

Dry Delta Feature as a Precursor of Cyclogenesis

75

(4)

Summary

79

(4)

Basic Principles in WV Imagery Interpretation

79

(1)

Light WV Imagery Patterns---Relation to Dynamical Structures

80

(1)

Dark WV Imagery Patterns---Relation to Dynamical Structures

80

(1)

Boundary Patterns on the WV Imagery---Relation to Dynamical Structures

80

(1)

Patterns of Interaction Between WV Imagery Features---Relation to Dynamical Processes

81

(1)

Superposition of WV Imagery and Dynamical Fields---A Tool for Synoptic-Scale Analysis

81

(2)

Use of Water Vapor Imagery for Assessing NWP Model Behavior and Improving Forecasts

83

(70)

Operational Use of the Relationship Between PV Fields and WV Imagery

83

(8)

Nature and Usefulness of the Relationship

83

(3)

Information Content of Vorticity Fields Related to WV Imagery

86

(1)

Relationships Among Dry Intrusion, PV Anomalies, and WV Imagery

87

(4)

Synthetic (Pseudo) Water Vapor Images

91

(2)

Comparing PV Fields, WV Imagery, and Synthetic WV Images

93

(7)

Validating NWP Output by Applying a WV-PV-PWV Comparison

94

(4)

Typical Instances of WV-PV-PWV Comparison

98

(2)

Agreement Among the WV Image, The PV Field, and the Synthetic WV Image/NWP Moisture Distribution

100

(5)

Instances of Mismatch Between the Synthetic WV Image/NWP Moisture Distribution and the PV Field

105

(15)

Agreements Between the WV Image and the PV Field

105

(5)

Mismatches Between the WV Image and the PV Field as Well as Between the WV and Synthetic Images

110

(2)

Agreement Between the WV Image and the Synthetic Image

112

(8)

Mismatch Between the WV Image and the PV Field and Agreement Between the PV Field and the Synthetic Image/NWP Moisture Distribution

120

(19)

Secondary Cyclone Development

120

(2)

Moist Ascent at Initiation of a Rapid Cyclogenesis

122

(7)

Reinforcement of Vortex Development Within a Cut-off Low System

129

(5)

Rapid Baroclinic Cyclogenesis in a Strong Zonal Atlantic Flow

134

(5)

Using Satellite and Synthetic WV Images and PV Concepts to Get an Alternative Numerical Forecast

139

(12)

An Example of Cyclogenesis in a Zonal Atlantic Flow

141

(3)

An Example of Upper-Level Forcing of Convection

144

(7)

Summary

151

(2)

Comparison Between Water Vapor Imagery and Dynamic Fields as an Operational Tool

151

(1)

Comparing Satellite and Synthetic Water Vapor Imagery with Potential Vorticity Fields for Validating NWP Output

152

(1)

Using Satellite and Synthetic Water Vapor Images and PV Concepts for Adjusting NWP Initial Conditions to Get an Alternative Numeric Forecast

153

(1)

CONCLUSION

153

(2)

APPENDIX A Radiative Transfer Theory and Some Radiation Effects for the WV Channels of Meteosat, GOES, and MSG

155

(10)

A.1 Radiative transfer theory

155

(5)

A.2 MSG WV channels

160

(5)

APPENDIX B Synthetic (Pseudo) Water Vapor Images

165

(2)

APPENDIX C PV Modification Technique and PV Inversion to Correct the Initial State of the Numerical Model

167

(2)

APPENDIX D Glossary of Acronyms

169

(2)

References

171

(2)

Index

173

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Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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