Why Nobody Believes the Numbers Distinguishing Fact from Fiction in Population Health Management

The health care industry is fraught with numbers that both human resource professionals and health plan executives cannot believe or understand. Health care vendors routinely show you outcomes reports for your Population Health Improvement programs whose numbers are much closer to fiction than fact. But you don't know why these numbers are fictional, do you? You leaf through these vendor outcomes reports, and wonder the best way to save money for your business while providing an optimal service. Measurement of savings, whether described as Return on Investment or another term, is the most contentious issue in disease management. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers provides information on benefits decisions that can be estimated without math, using observational data to figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or not. Better decisions can be made by looking critically at the data and using the information to make smart decisions in the future. For example, you can look at actual event rates over time (heart attacks, asthma attacks, etc.) and ask whether the return-on-investment (ROI) that a vendor is insisting you received is plausible given the changes in event rates over time in your population. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers counsels the opposite of the health care industry standard. You check every piece of arithmetic you see because in this field most calculations are wrong, often to the point of being impossible. With the information provided, health plan providers and benefits departments will be able to better understand the numbers in outcome measurement reports to provide quality services and save money.

Al Lewis, President of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium, is widely credited with inventing disease management and was named "the national leader in analyzing care management outcomes" in the 9th Annual Report on the Disease Management and Wellness Industries. He provides procurement and outcomes consulting to health plans and human resources/benefits departments, and administers the industry certification program in Critical Outcomes Report Analysis. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard.