Wither Iran?: Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security

Iran's revolutionary regime has been a cause of considerable concern forits neighbours and the international community. Its original ambitions saw itembroiled in a long war and its immediate neighbourhood, notably the Gulf andAfghanistan, have seen considerable turmoil. As Iran's revolutionary enthusiasmhas waned and a reformist movement has appeared, the question of whether it isin the process of a profound change has arisen. Specifically the question hasbeen whether domestic reform in Iran might lead to changes in Iran's foreign andsecurity policies that would make it a state no longer challenging the regionalorder but contributing to it. This monograph examines the nature of politicalchange within Iran and assesses the degree to which it has and could affect thatcountry's security policies. It makes specific reference to policies concerningthe acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction, missiles and terrorism,in particular in the context of the issue of Palestine. Broadly it concludesthat while the reformist movement focuses most on domestic issues, they havealso changed Iran's foreign and security policies. This is most evident inrelation to the use of terrorism and possibly also in the areas of acquisitionof nuclear weapons capability and the Middle East issue; it is least likely inrelation to reliance on missiles for defence. In terms of policy the implicationis that a reforming Iran is one that sees policy debated and issues ventilatedand made more transparent. Western policy ought to be to encourage this trend,understanding that engagement and contacts are not rewards to be used asinducements but rather instruments of policy that can deepen and makeirreversible the trend toward reform, debate and pluralism in Iran. Such anIran, in turn, would pose fewer problems for the West.

Shahram Chubin was born in Iran and educated in the West. He has taught at various universities including the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and was a Director of Regional Security Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He is currently Director of Research at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.