The World Heroin Market Can Supply Be Cut?

Heroin is universally considered the world's most harmful illegal drug. This is due not only to the damaging effects of the drug itself, but also to the spread of AIDS tied to its use. Burgeoning illegal mass consumption in the 1960s and 1970s has given rise to a global market for heroin and other opiates of nearly 16 million users. The production and trafficking of opiates have caused crime, disease, and social distress throughout the world, leading many nations to invest billions of dollars trying to suppress the industry. The failure of their efforts has become a central policy concern. Can the world heroin supply actually be cut, and with what consequences? The result of a five-year-long research project involving extensive fieldwork in six Asian countries, Colombia, and Turkey, this book is the first systematic analysis of the contemporary world heroin market, delving into its development and structure, its participants, and its socio-economic impact. It provides a sound and comprehensive empirical base for concluding that there is little opportunity to shrink the global supply of heroin in the long term, and explains why production is concentrated in a handful of countries--and is likely to remain that way. on the basis of these findings, the authors identify a key set of policy opportunities, largely local, and make suggestions for leveraging them. This book also offers new insights into market conditions in India, Tajikistan, and other countries that have been greatly harmed by the production and trafficking of illegal opiates. A deft integration of economics, sociology, history, and policy analysis, The World Heroin Market provides a rigorous and vital look into the complex--and resilient--global heroin trade.

Letizia Paoli is Professor of Criminology at the K.U. Leuven Faculty of Law, Belgium.
Victoria Greenfield holds the Admiral Crowe Chair in Economics at the U.S. Naval Academy.
Peter Reuter is Professor in the School of Public Policy and the Department of Criminology at the University of Maryland.

Introduction	p. 3
Prior Research	p. 5
Data Collection and Model Development	p. 7
Major Findings	p. 8
Book Outline	p. 10
The Development, Composition, and Behavior of the World Opiate Market
The Past as Prologue: The Development of the World Opiate Market and the Rise of the International Control Regime	p. 15
Introduction	p. 15
Production and Consumption, 1800-1909	p. 16
Development and Impact of the International Drug Control Regime, 1909-1945	p. 21
Rise and Impact of National Controls, 1906-1945	p. 26
Downslide and Upswing, 1945-1970, and a Brief Coda	p. 33
Concluding Remarks	p. 39
The Contemporary Market	p. 41
Introduction	p. 41
Current Conditions and Market Trends	p. 42
Properties of Supply and Demand	p. 53
Supply Control Policies	p. 64
Concluding Remarks	p. 67
Did the Taliban's Ban Really Matter?	p. 69
Introduction	p. 69
The Ban, the Cutback, and the Aftermath	p. 70
The Market Response	p. 71
Concluding Remarks	p. 83
Keeping Track of Opiate Flows	p. 85
Introduction	p. 85
An Outline of the Approach	p. 86
Data Compilation	p. 88
Data Reconciliation	p. 100
Trafficking Routes and Opiate Flows	p. 103
Concluding Remarks	p. 106
Country Studies
Afghanistan and Burma: The Two Dominant Producers	p. 111
Introduction	p. 111
In Search of an Explanation	p. 111
Afghanistan: From Quasi-State Authorities to Protectors within the State?	p. 118
Burma: A Succession of Quasi-State Authorities	p. 130
Concluding Remarks	p. 142
India: Diversion from Licit Cultivation	p. 144
Introduction	p. 144
Opiate Consumption	p. 145
Illicit Sources of Opiates	p. 146
Diversion from Licit Production and Its Share of the Illicit Market	p. 148
Heroin Production, Trafficking, and Export	p. 157
Concluding Remarks	p. 159
Colombia: The Emergence of a New Producer	p. 161
Introduction	p. 161
Background: Cocaine, Insurgents, and Government Weakness	p. 162
The Emergence of the Opiate Industry	p. 165
Opium Production and Processing	p. 166
The Industry Players and Their Relationships	p. 172
Control Efforts	p. 175
Consumption	p. 178
Concluding Remarks	p. 179
Tajikistan: The Rise of a Narco-State	p. 181
Introduction	p. 181
The Expansion of the Illicit Opiate Industry: Explanatory Factors	p. 182
The Phases of Trafficking	p. 188
Tajikistan's Integration into the World Heroin Market	p. 190
The Rapid Growth of Local Opiate Consumption	p. 191
Drug-Trafficking Enterprises	p. 192
Concluding Remarks	p. 197
Policy Analysis and Implications
The Theoretical and Practical Consequences of Variations in Effective Illegality	p. 201
Introduction	p. 201
The Consequences of Strict Enforcement	p. 204
The Consequences of Lax Enforcement	p. 209
The Consequences of Non-enforcement	p. 219
Two Theses on the Role of Governments in Opiate Markets	p. 227
Concluding Remarks	p. 233
Synthesis of Findings and Lessons for Policy Making	p. 235
Findings on the World Opiate Market	p. 235
Suggestions for Leveraging Limited Policy Opportunities	p. 245
Possible Futures for International Drug Policy	p. 249
Legal Production of Opium	p. 259
Average Consumption and Purity	p. 261
Central Asia: Trafficking Revenues and Economic Dependency	p. 267
Examples of Countries with Lax Enforcement	p. 284
Notes	p. 293
References	p. 327
Index	p. 359
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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The World Heroin Market Can Supply Be Cut?

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