Extreme Events Observations, Modeling, and Economics

The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences. 

This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve:

(i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts. 

With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.

Mario Chavez is a scientist at the Institute of Engineering in Mexico. He has served as a Secretary (1981-1983) and Vice President (1991-1993) of the Mexican Society for Earthquake Engineering AC, Network Director accelerograph and Seismological Research Institute for Engineering, Guadalajara, Mexico (1993-1998 ), and also as an External Adviser of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of Mexico (2001-2003). He has published 30 articles in journals and 65 conferences, national and international, as well as 76 technical studies. He has directed 12 theses of Bachelor, Masters and 7 Doctoral. His research interests include seismic risk in urban and industrial environment, numerical modeling with supercomputer seismic waves propagation, and extreme events and their economic impact.

Michael Ghil is a distinguished research Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. He joined the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS)) in the year 2002 as a distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He is a highly cited author in the field of geosciences with his research focus on the physics of climate change on all time scales. He is the author of a dozen books and over 275 refereed articles (including the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA) and book chapters in the area of geophysics and climate dynamics. His research interests include atmospheric and oceanic sciences, climate dynamics, dynamical and complex systems theory, estimation theory, extreme events and prediction, geophysical fluid dynamics, macroeconomics, numerical and statistical methods, remote sensing and applications. He was awarded the 2011 Alfred Wegener Medal from the European Geosciences Union and has been recognized as an honorary member of the Union in 2012.

Jaime Urrutia Fucugauchi is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) since 1997 and is a Professor at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM since 1984. He is also the Chairman, Department of Geomagnetism and Geophysical Exploration at the Institute of Geophysics, UNAM (since 1984). He is a former President of the Mexican Geophysical Union (1985-1987). He has also served as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research (1993-1995) (American Geophysical Union). He has over 200 research articles in the field. His research interests include Geo- and Paleo-magnetism, Magnetostratigraphy, Paleogeography and Tectonics, Paleoclimatic and Environmental Evolution and Exploration Geophysics.

Contributors vii

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xiii

1 Introduction
Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia�]Fucugauchi 1

Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7

2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis
Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9

3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events
Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23

4 Skill of Data�]based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies
Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz 35

5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points
Timothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51

6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach
Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63

Part II: Extreme Events in Earth’s Space Environment 79

7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections
Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81

8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary
Jaime Urrutia�]Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez�]Cruz 93

Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113

9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States
Andrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115

10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma
Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez�]Ortiz, Ismael Mariño�]Tapia, and Angélica Felix 125

11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137

12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation
Michael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153

Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163

13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach
María�]Teresa Ramírez�]Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez 165

14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations
Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177

15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment
Servando De la Cruz�]Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza�]Rosas 195

Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205

16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory
Richard W Katz 207

17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach
Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219

18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts
Suzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303

19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy
Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte 343

Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361

20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts
Lubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363

21 High�]Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme Events
Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz 381

22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness
Vladimir Keilis�]Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391

Index 407

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