The Development of Atmospheric General

Presenting a comprehensive discussion of general circulation models of the atmosphere, this book covers their historical and contemporary development, their societal context, and current efforts to integrate these models into wider earth-system models. Leading researchers provide unique perspectives on the scientific breakthroughs, overarching themes, critical applications, and future prospects for atmospheric general circulation models. Key interdisciplinary links to other subject areas such as chemistry, oceanography and ecology are also highlighted. This book is a core reference for academic researchers and professionals involved in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climate science, and can be used as a resource for graduate-level courses in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Given the critical role that atmospheric general circulation models are playing in the intense public discourse on climate change, it is also a valuable resource for policy makers and all those concerned with the scientific basis for the ongoing public-policy debate.

Contributors	p. ix
Foreword	p. xi
Introduction	p. 1
Acknowledgments	p. 2
From Richardson to early numerical weather prediction	p. 3
Pioneers of scientific forecasting	p. 3
Pre-computer forecasting	p. 6
Key developments, 1920-1950	p. 8
The ENIAC integrations	p. 9
Advancing computer technology	p. 11
Climate modeling	p. 13
Uncertainty and probability	p. 14
Dreams fulfilled	p. 15
References	p. 16
The evolution and future research goals for general circulation models	p. 18
Introduction	p. 18
Evolution of general circulation modeling efforts	p. 23
Future goals for climate and Earth system modeling	p. 36
Acknowledgments	p. 42
References	p. 42
Appendix	p. 46
Beyond prediction to climate modeling and climate control: New perspectives from the papers of Harry Wexler, 1945-1962	p. 51
On the possibilities of climate control	p. 51
Computers and meteorology, 1945-1946	p. 52
Fantasies of control	p. 60
Computers and meteorology, 1947-1948	p. 62
Wexler's key contributions in other areas	p. 63
Climate change and the general circulation	p. 66
Gilbert Plass and CO₂ modeling	p. 66
Harry Wexler's article and final lectures on climate control	p. 68
Conclusion	p. 71
References	p. 72
Synergies between numerical weather prediction and general circulation climate models	p. 76
Background and motivation	p. 76
Seamless prediction across a range of space scales	p. 81
Seamless prediction across a range of time scales	p. 89
Benefits of shared development	p. 98
Conclusion and future exploitation	p. 106
Acknowledgments	p. 107
References	p. 108
Contributions of observational studies to the evaluation and diagnosis of atmospheric GCM simulations	p. 117
Introduction	p. 117
The early years - energy cycle, zonal-mean circulation, and regional climatology	p. 118
Shift of attention to longitudinal and frequency dependence of atmospheric variability	p. 122
Diagnoses of local interactions between transient eddies and the time-mean circulation	p. 131
Experimentations on interactions with SST conditions at various sites	p. 135
Discussion and future prospects	p. 141
Acknowledgments	p. 143
References	p. 144
Coupling atmospheric general circulation to oceans	p. 148
Introduction	p. 148
Ocean models	p. 149
Coupled models compared to observations	p. 153
Paleoclimate	p. 157
El Niño	p. 158
Multi-decadal climate variability	p. 162
Future challenges and opportunities for coupled models	p. 171
Acknowledgments	p. 172
References	p. 172
Coupling atmospheric circulation models to biophysical, biochemical, and biological processes at the land surface	p. 177
Beginnings of modeling the land surface as a component of GCMs	p. 177
Land's role in climate variability and change	p. 179
The introduction of dynamic vegetation	p. 184
Coupling to the carbon cycle	p. 185
Concluding discussion	p. 193
References	p. 194
The evolution of complexity in general circulation models	p. 202
Introduction	p. 202
In the beginning	p. 203
Numerics	p. 206
Parameterizations	p. 208
From academia to enterprise: a loss of innocence	p. 212
Peta-flops and giga-grids	p. 214
Conclusions	p. 220
Acknowledgments	p. 221
References	p. 221
The co-evolution of climate models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	p. 225
Historical development of global climate models in the IPCC context	p. 225
The beginnings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)	p. 229
The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC (1990)	p. 230
The Second Assessment Report (SAR) and Third Assessment Report (TAR)	p. 233
IPCC and the policy debate regarding human effects on climate change	p. 234
The IPCC process	p. 236
An example of model evolution in the IPCC context: cloud processes	p. 240
Coupled models	p. 242
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and the future of the IPCC	p. 244
References	p. 251
Index	p. 253
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The Development of Atmospheric General Circulation Models: Complexity, Synthesis and Computation

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