Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence

Ulrich Ermel is Head of Department Materials and Obsolescence Management at TQ Systems GmbH and Chairman of the Component Obsolescence Group in Germany.

Peter Sandborn, PhD, is Professor of Mechanical Engineering in the CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center at the University of Maryland.

Michael Pecht, PhD, is Chair Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Director of the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE) at the University of Maryland. He is also a visiting Professor in Electronics Engineering at City University in Hong Kong.

Preface xiii

1 Introduction to Obsolescence Problems 1

1.1 Definition of Obsolescence 1

1.2 Categorization of Obsolescence Types 3

1.3 Definition of Obsolescence Management 4

1.4 Categorization of Obsolescence Management Approaches 5

1.5 Historical Perspective on Obsolescence 6

1.6 Occurrence of Obsolescence 8

1.7 Product Sectors Affected by Obsolescence Problems 11

1.8 Parts Affected by Obsolescence Problems 13

2 Part Change and Discontinuation Management 17

2.1 The Change Process 18

2.2 Change-Control Policies of Major Part Manufacturers 18

2.3 Change-Notification Policies of Major Companies 19

2.4 Change-Notification 24

2.5 Change-Notification Paths 27

2.6 Examples of Common Changes 29

3 Introduction to Electronic Part Product Life Cycles 33

3.1 Product Life Cycle Stages 34

3.2 Special Cases of the Product Life Cycle Curve 39

3.3 Product Life Cycle Stages as a Basis for Forecasting 40

4 Obsolescence Forecasting Methodologies 41

4.1 Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts with Evolutionary Parametric Drivers 42

4.2 Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts without Evolutionary Parametric Drivers 56

4.3 Non-Database Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology 70

5 Case Study Hardware Forecasts and Trends 77

5.1 Dynamic RAMs (DRAMs) 77

5.2 Static Random Access Memories (SRAMs) 84

5.3 Non-Volatile Memories 94

5.4 Microprocessors 105

5.5 Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) 115

5.6 Logic Parts 120

5.7 Analog Parts 129

5.8 Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) 136

6 Software Obsolescence 143

6.1 The Root Causes of Software Obsolescence 145

6.2 Software Obsolescence Mechanisms 146

6.3 Discussion 155

7 Reactive Obsolescence Management 157

7.1 Change and Discontinuance Notifications 158

7.2 Obsolescence Recovery (Mitigation) Tactics 160

7.3 Selecting the Proper Reactive Obsolescence Management Strategy 186

7.4 Reactive Obsolescence Management Checklist 188

7.5 Reactive Obsolescence Management Guideline 188

8 Proactive Obsolescence Management 193

8.1 Members of the Proactive Obsolescence Management Board 194

8.2 Schedule and Milestones 194

8.3 Initial Obsolescence Risk Analysis 195

8.4 Tracking Parts’ Availability 197

8.5 Product Obsolescence and Aftersales 197

9 Strategic Obsolescence Management 199

9.1 Applying Project Management Principles to Obsolescence Management 200

9.2 Initiation Stage 202

9.3 Planning and Design Stage 205

9.4 Execution Stage 210

9.5 Monitoring and Controlling Stage 225

9.6 Strategic Obsolescence Management Guidelines 229

10 Obsolescence Management Standards and Organizations 233

10.1 Helpful Standards for Obsolescence Management 233

10.2 Helpful Organizations for Obsolescence Management 237

References 245

Index 267

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