The Adaptive Decision Maker

The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyze how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.

Preface

xi

Adaptive decision behavior: An introduction

1

(19)

Flexibility in decision making

1

(2)

Factors influencing contingent decision behavior

3

(1)

The benefits and costs of contingent decision behavior

4

(5)

Overview of a framework for adaptive decision behavior

9

(6)

Research on contingent behavior in other areas of psychology

15

(2)

The organization of the book

17

(3)

Contingencies in decision making

20

(50)

Introduction

20

(2)

Decision strategies

22

(12)

Decision problem characteristics: Task effects

34

(20)

Decision problem characteristics: Context effects

54

(12)

Contingent usage of strategies for probabilistic reasoning

66

(2)

Summary

68

(2)

Deciding how to decide: An effort---accuracy framework

70

(47)

Introduction

70

(2)

Costs and benefits in decision making

72

(3)

Cognitive effort and decision strategies

75

(13)

The accuracy of decisions

88

(3)

Anticipated accuracy and effort

91

(1)

Trading accuracy for effort savings

92

(7)

Relationships to other frameworks

99

(15)

Summary

114

(3)

Studying contingent decisions: An integrated methodology

117

(54)

Introduction

117

(1)

Production systems as models of decision strategies

118

(5)

A Monte Carlo study of effort and accuracy in choice

123

(21)

Process-tracing methods

144

(3)

Validation by relating the simulation results to prior studies of contingent processing

147

(7)

Validation of the simulation results by direct tests

154

(14)

Summary

168

(3)

Constructive processes in decision making

171

(21)

Introduction

171

(1)

The nature of constructive processes

172

(5)

When will constructive processes be used?

177

(1)

Accuracy---effort tradeoffs and constructive processes

178

(2)

Noticing and exploiting regularities

180

(9)

Summary

189

(3)

When may adaptivity fail?

192

(26)

Introduction

192

(1)

Deficits in knowledge

193

(21)

Inability to execute strategies

214

(2)

Summary

216

(2)

Improving decisions and other practical matters

218

(30)

Introduction

218

(2)

Approaches to decision aiding

220

(19)

The measurement and prediction of preferences

239

(8)

Summary

247

(1)

The adaptive decision maker: A look backward and a look forward

248

(16)

Introduction

248

(1)

What have we learned?

248

(2)

New directions for future research

250

(13)

Summary

263

(1)

Appendix: The Mouselab system

264

(15)

Introduction

264

(2)

The mouse as pointing device

266

(2)

Overview of the Mouselab system

268

(10)

Summary

278

(1)

References

279

(30)

Name index

309

(6)

Subject index

315

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The Adaptive Decision Maker

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials