Tajikistan's Winter Energy Crisis Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives

Tajikistan suffers severe energy shortages in winter, caused by a combination of low hydropower output during winter, when river fl ows are low, and high demand driven by heating needs. Shortages affect some 70 percent of the population, costing about 3 percent of annual GDP. This fi gure excludes human and environmental costs, as well as the serious negative effect on the business investment climate. If no measures are undertaken to address this problem, then current electricity shortages, estimated at about one-quarter of winter demand (2,700 GWh), could increase to more than one-third of winter demand (4,500 GWh) by 2016. The Government of Tajikistan recognizes both the importance and challenges of energy security and has therefore introduced various measures to help meet demand. Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis explores a range of supply and demand alternatives—including thermal, run-of-river hydro, other renewables, energy effi ciency, and demand management—to further inform its development partners on the country’s efforts to meet its winter energy demand. The study recommends that the Government of Tajikistan • accelerate its efforts in energy effi ciency and demand management, including tariff reform; • add new dual-fi red thermal power supply to complement the existing hydropower supply during winter; and • pursue energy imports and rebuild regional energy trade routes to leverage surplus electricity supply in neighboring countries. Energy conservation and demand-side management, effective resource management, and reduction alone could address 40 percent of the shortages, including a signifi cant package of economic measures at the main aluminum smelting plant. The study suggests that by following these recommended actions shortages could be signifi cantly reduced within 4–5 years and a solid base for long-term energy established.