Decisions Over Decimals Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information

This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate:

• Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders
• Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information
• Delivering decisions that stick

CHRISTOPHER FRANK is a Vice President in the Global Advertising and Brand Management team at American Express. He is a senior strategist at the intersection of marketing, analytics, and commerce developing superior strategies applied to global markets working with B2B and B2C products. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps^™ Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the world’s leading marketing and management science journals.

Preface

Prologue: The Certainty Myth    

Quantitative Intuition (QI)           

Why Combine Quantitative Analysis with Intuition

Biases from Working Intuitively 

Biases from Working with Data 

Chapter 1: Powerful Questions  

Road to Powerful Questioning

Precision Questioning    

The Power of Precision Questions            

Building an Inquisitive Team Culture       

The Smartest Person in the Room            

Key Learnings from Powerful Questions 

Chapter 2: Framing the Problem

IWIK: A Tool for Reasoning          

The IWIK Process            

Framing the Decision     

Key Learnings from IWIKs            

Chapter 3: Working Backward to Move Forward

Defining the Problem by Working Backward

Step 1: Create a Decision Tree   

Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs

Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map     

Harnessing Inside- versus Outside-of-the-Box Thinking    

Working Backward: Taking the Road Less Traveled           

Key Learnings from Working Backward from a Decision  

Chapter 4: Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator            

Part 1: Assessing the Data and Its Reliability         

What Data Was Collected?          

What Data Am I Not Seeing?       

Can I Trust the Data and Analyses?          

Part 2: Putting the Data in Context          

Part 3: Pressure Testing Your Analysis

Key Learnings from Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator           

Chapter 5: Developing Intuition: The Power of Approximation     

The Power of Approximations: Approximating Market Sizing        

Learning to Approximate             

Approximating in Practice           

Why Guesstimation Works          

Getting Comfortable with Approximations            

Consider Approximation in Context

Statistical Significance Doesn’t Mean Managerial Relevance         

Guesstimation in the QI Framework        

Key Learnings from Learning to Approximate       

Chapter 6: From Analysis to Synthesis: Connecting the Dots

What Is Synthesis?          

Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line    

Why Is Synthesis Hard? 

How Do We Encourage Synthesis?           

Moving from “What?” to “So What?” and “Now What?”

Key Learnings from Synthesis: Connecting the Dots          

Chapter 7: The Decision Moment             

Dimensions of the Decision Moment       

The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk             

The Third Dimension: Trust         

Striving for Measurement across Time, Risk, and Trust    

Allocating Time 

Measuring Risk 

Measuring Trust              

Reversibility and the Decision Moment  

Navigating Ambiguity and Uncertainty    

From IWIKs to Decisions              

Key Learnings from the Decision Moment            

Chapter 8: Delivering the Decision           

The Story Arc in Decision-Making             

Inner Voice and External Reality

Inform versus Compel   

Key Learnings from Delivering the Decision

Chapter 9: Chasing the Decision

Why We Wind Up Chasing the Decision 

Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision        

Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome 

Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision

Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision      

Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision-Makers to the Decision Moment          

Strategy 6: Pressure Test Decisions          

Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus               

The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion             

Key Learnings from Chasing the Decision              

Chapter 10: Building the Quantitative Intuition (QI) Team             

The QI Skill Set  

Building a QI Team         

Your QI Role within Your Organization    

Key Learnings from Hiring            

Chapter 11: What’s Next in Data-Driven Decision-Making?            

Automation       

Predictions and the Digital Twin

The Rise of Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking

Conclusion

EPILOGUE

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

INDEX   

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