LNG Risk Based Safety Modeling and Consequence Analysis

This book describes the technology for assessing the consequences of a release of a large quantity of LNG. The book starts off by giving a background on LNG and its maintenance. It then summarizes the results and conclusions from experiments with LNG spills, the range of modeling predictions for hazardous zones, and the remaining uncertainty levels of important variables that affect these predictions. Much of this information is drawn from the expertise of Governmental Accountability Office's (GAO) survey of nineteen LNG experts from across the North America and Europe.Since LNG is a controversial topic, the book will examine the accuracies and inaccuracies that proponents and opponents of LNG technology cite to promote their side of the debate. It is intended that regulators use the book to establish a baseline for what is known and what uncertainties remain. Reporters and lawyers should use it to discern between unsupported claims, or poor assumptions and points with a scientific basis. It should help the public to understand the basis for predictions, and which results are credible. It also serves as a definitive review of technical literature to date, and, thus for researchers and developers extending the technology.

John L. Woodward, PhD, is Senior Principal Consultant in the Process Safety Division of Baker Engineering and Risk Consultants, Inc. in San Antonio, Texas. He has been actively involved in consequence modeling for both the DNV PHAST and BakerRisk SafeSite codes for many years. He was invited by the GAO (Government Accountability Office) as part of a team of LNG experts to review LNG safety issues. Robin M. Pitblado, PhD, is Director for SHE Risk Management for Det Norske Veritas and is based in Houston, Texas. He has been active in consequence modeling, risk assessment and major accident investigation for over thirty years and was also a member of the GAO Panel of LNG Experts.