The Geographical Analysis of Population With Applications to Planning and Business

, by Plane, David A.; Rogerson, Peter A.

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ISBN: 9780471510147 | 0471510149
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 2/16/1994

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Concentrates on both applied demographic and planning techniques which rely upon geographical aspects of population data. Describes methods used to assess the impact of population change on facility demand, school enrollment, changes in product market, transportation and recreation demand forecasting. Applied problems expose students to hands-on planning problems. Questions and solutions use actual data.

Introduction

(22)

Why Study Population?

(1)

Local-Scale Applications Require Broad System-Scale Perspectives

(1)

The World Scale: Potential Consequences of Population Change

(6)

Fibonnacci's Rabbits

(2)

Current and Past Rates of World Population Growth

(3)

Implications of Falling Birth Rates

(1)

The National Scale: Age Composition and Migration Pattern Shifts

(5)

Impact of the Baby Boom

(2)

Broad-Scale Migration Pattern Changes

(2)

The Repercussions of Age Composition Changes on Migration Patterns

(1)

The Local Scale: A School Reassignment Case Study

(6)

Case Study: Catalina Foothills School District Elementary School Reassignment Problem

(4)

Reasons for Our Focus on the Local Scale

(1)

The Interdisciplinary Organization of Population Research

(2)

Demography and Population Studies

(1)

Population Geography

(1)

Population Analysis in Planning, Marketing, and Regional Science

(1)

Sources of Population Data

(2)

U.S. Census

(1)

Private-Sector Sources

(1)

Population Distribution and Composition

(34)

Introduction

(1)

Population Distribution

(14)

Population Dot Maps

(1)

Population Density

(3)

The Index of Concentration

(1)

The Lorenz Curve

(2)

Centers of Population

(6)

Measuring Accessibility

(4)

The Threshold Accessibility Index

(1)

The Aggregate Accessibility Index

(3)

Population Composition

(9)

Median Age

(1)

The Dependency Ratio

(1)

Economic Participation Measures

(1)

The Sex Ratio

(2)

Population Pyramids

(2)

Location Quotients

(2)

Geographic Association

(3)

Summary

(4)

Describing Demographic Change

(34)

Introduction

Population Growth (and Decline)

(11)

Percentage Changes

(1)

Geometric Rates of Change

(1)

Exponential Rates of Change

(2)

Determining the Geometric and Exponential Rates of Change

(1)

Logistic Growth

(2)

Components of Change and Demographic Accounting

(6)

Demographic Rates and Probabilities

(1)

Components of Change

(1)

Demographic Accounting

(2)

Illustrative Example: Minor Flows

(2)

Measures of Mortality

(5)

Standardized Death Rates

(3)

Measures of Infant Mortality

(1)

Life Tables: Construction and Interpretation

(6)

Interpretation of a Life Table as a Cohort of Individuals

(2)

Alternative Interpretation as a Stationary Population

(1)

Life Table Construction

(1)

Survival Ratios

(3)

Measures of Fertility

(5)

Period versus Cohort Rates

(1)

Summary

(5)

Migration: Analyzing the Geographic Patterns

(36)

Introduction

(1)

Migration Definition and Measurement

(3)

Importance of Areal Unit Definition

(1)

Fixed Period versus Registry-type Data

(1)

Measures of Migration

(5)

Transition Probabilities

(2)

Gross Migration Rates

(1)

Net Migration Rates

(1)

Demographic Effectiveness

(2)

The Relationship Between In- and Out-Migration

100

(6)

The Intuitive Perspective

100

(1)

The Positive Correlation Perspective

100

(2)

Lowry's ``Asymmetrical'' Relationship of In- and Out-Migration

102

(1)

Beale's Findings

102

(1)

Kriesberg and Vining's Measure of In- and Out-Migration Contributions

103

(1)

The Nonlinearity of the Relationship between Out-Migration and Net Migration

104

(1)

The Cross-Regional Variance of In-Migration and Out-Migration

105

(1)

The Entropy of In- and Out-Migration

105

(1)

Disaggregating by Migrant Characteristics

106

(9)

Migration Age Schedules

107

(1)

Migration Expectancies and Migraproduction Rates

108

(3)

Migrant Selectivity

111

(1)

Beaten Paths and the Role of Information

112

(1)

Return Migration

113

(1)

Duration of Residence Effects and Cumulative Inertia

114

(1)

Methods for Analyzing Geographic Patterns of Migration

115

(9)

Principal Component Analysis

115

(3)

The Extremal Tendencies of Sonis

118

(3)

Spatial Shift-Share Analysis

121

(3)

Summary

124

(3)

Population Estimation

127

(28)

Introduction

127

(3)

The Parlance of Estimates

128

(2)

The Principal Types of Estimation Techniques

130

(1)

Simple Interpolation and Extrapolation

130

(4)

Linear Interpolation

130

(2)

Alternative Extrapolation Techniques

132

(2)

The Regression or Ratio-Correlation Method

134

(3)

A Real World Ratio-Correlation Equation

136

(1)

Problems with Ratio-Correlation Estimates

136

(1)

Component Methods

137

(5)

Component Method II

137

(3)

The Administrative Records Method

140

(2)

Housing-Unit Methods

142

(4)

Monitoring Temporal Change in the Number of Housing Units

142

(2)

Measuring Occupancy Rates

144

(1)

The Persons-per-Housing-Unit Factor

145

(1)

Evaluating Estimates

146

(5)

Two Methods for ``Testing'' Estimation Procedures

146

(1)

Some Rules of Thumb to Improve Estimates

147

(3)

A Case Study in the Pitfalls of Unequal Weighting

150

(1)

Summary

151

(4)

Population Projections

155

(34)

Introduction

155

(1)

Elementary Extrapolative Methods

156

(4)

Linear Extrapolation

157

(1)

Geometric and Exponential Extrapolation

158

(2)

The Single-Region Cohort Component Model

160

(9)

Matrix Form of the Cohort Component Model

164

(2)

Example

166

(3)

Cohort Component Models with Migration

169

(8)

Cohort Survival with Constant Net Migration Rates

169

(1)

The Markov Model for Population Redistribution

170

(4)

The Interregional Cohort Component Model

174

(2)

Accounting-Based Population Projections

176

(1)

Other Applications of the Cohort Concept

177

(1)

School Enrollment Projections

177

(6)

The Grade Progression Ratio Method

178

(3)

The Housing Unit Method

181

(2)

Projecting the Demographic Structure of Organizations

183

(1)

Summary

184

(5)

Modeling and Forecasting Migration

189

(42)

Introduction

189

(1)

What Migration Quantity to Model?

190

(6)

The Volatility of Net Migration

191

(1)

The Fallacy of Using Net Migration Rates for Forecasting

192

(4)

The Gravity Model

196

(10)

Distance Deterrence

197

(2)

Constrained and Unconstrained Gravity Models

199

(1)

Fitting an Unconstrained Model

200

(3)

Singly Constrained Gravity Models

203

(1)

Other Forms of the Gravity Model

204

(2)

The Intervening Opportunities Model

206

(5)

An Example: The Opportunity and Constrained Gravity Models Compared

208

(3)

Temporally Varying Transitional Probabilities

211

(8)

The Causative Matrix Model

211

(4)

Feeney's Model

215

(3)

The Destination Population Weighted (DPW) Model

218

(1)

Improving on the Basic DPW Model

218

(1)

Economic Gravity Models

219

(6)

Lowry's Model

220

(2)

The Role of Amenities

222

(1)

The Need for a Micro Perspective in Behavioral Migration Research

223

(1)

An Important Accounting Constraint: Milne's ``Seemingly Unrelated Regression Approach''

224

(1)

Toward Economic-Demographic Models

225

(2)

Comprehensive Economic-Demographic Modeling Frameworks

227

(1)

Summary

227

(4)

The Role of Population in Infrastructure Planning

231

(44)

Introduction

231

(1)

Urban Travel Forecasting

232

(13)

The Role of Free Choice and Constraints in Urban Travel Demand Analysis

232

(1)

Steps in the Urban Travel Forecasting Process

233

(12)

Recreation Facilities Planning

245

(10)

Recreation Supply

248

(1)

Recreation Demand

248

(6)

Matching Forecasts of Demand with Supply

254

(1)

Site Location

255

(4)

Impediments to the Production of Improved Forecasts

259

(1)

Optimal Demand Assignment Methods

260

(9)

The Un-unified-Unified School District Problem

261

(8)

The Use of Forecasts in Decision Making

269

(1)

Summary

270

(5)

Household Demography

275

(24)

Introduction

275

(1)

A Brief Look at Households, Location, and Relocation in the United States

276

(3)

Geographic Concepts Relevant to the Study of Households

279

(5)

Vacancy Chains

280

(4)

Demographic and Geographic Analysis of Households

284

(12)

Householders and Markers

285

(1)

Householder Rate Method

285

(2)

The Household Membership Rate Method

287

(4)

Microsimulation

291

(2)

Matching Housing Demand with Housing Supply

293

(3)

Summary

296

(3)

Demographics

299

(40)

Introduction

299

(2)

The Measurement of Diversity and Segregation

301

(7)

Diversity Measures

301

(2)

Segregation Measures

303

(4)

``Cracking and Packing'': Diversity and Segregation in Political Redistricting

307

(1)

Factorial Ecology

308

(12)

Case Study: Postindustrial Demographic Change in Cleveland

309

(11)

Cluster Analysis for Defining Socially Homogeneous Areas

320

(8)

Similarity Measures

322

(1)

Agglomerative Clustering

323

(4)

Iterative Clustering

327

(1)

Life-Style Clustering for Market Segmentation and Targeting

328

(6)

Case Study: The Geography of Grit Magazine Subscription

329

(5)

Summary

334

(5)

Demographic and Geographic Information Systems for Population Analysis

339

(22)

Introduction

339

(1)

A Brief Historical Account of Early Population Mapping

340

(1)

TIGER: A Digital Cartographic Database

341

(4)

The TIGER System

343

(2)

Geographic Information Systems

345

(1)

Demographic and Geographic Information Systems for Population Analysis

345

(5)

Some Capabilities of Demographic and Geographic Information Systems Relevant to Population Analysis

350

(6)

Areas of Polygons

350

(1)

Areal Interpolation

351

(1)

Dasymetric Mapping

352

(2)

Choropleth Maps and Geographic Scale

354

(2)

Limitations of GIS Used for Population Analysis

356

(1)

Prospects

357

(1)

Summary

358

(3)

Conclusions

361

(12)

Importance of the Geographical Analysis of Population

361

(1)

Scale

361

(5)

Scale Dependence in Choice of Method

361

(1)

Different Questions for Different Scales

362

(1)

The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem

362

(1)

Positive Benefits from Studying Phenomena at Alternative Spatial Scales

363

(1)

Results at a Given Scale May Hide Significant Spatial Variation

364

(2)

Long-Term Perspectives on Population Change

366

(3)

The Interaction Between Rates and Composition

366

(3)

Geographic Perspectives on Future Population Change

369

(4)

Appendix A Addresses for U.S. Organizations of Interest

373

(1)

Appendix B Geographical Subunits and Hierarchical Relationships

374

(5)

Appendix C Logarithms

379

(1)

Appendix D Matrix Algebra

380

(2)

References

382

(15)

Solutions to Selected Exercises

397

(11)

Author Index

408

(2)

Subject Index

410

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The Geographical Analysis of Population With Applications to Planning and Business

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